THE ANALYSIS DESK
Read the game.
Fixtures, probabilities and the evidence behind every pick.
Fetching fixtures
SPORTS INTELLIGENCE
A clearer view
before kick-off.
Explore the numbers. Compare the outcomes. Build your own read of the match.
Explore the forecast record01 / MATCH CENTREFootball · Basketball · Tennis
YOUR MATCHDAY WORKSPACE
Preparing the matchday.
Fetching fixtures and available model estimates.
Fixtures in view—
Competitions available—
Your selections00
Feed statusRefreshing
All competitions
This week’s matches
LoadingFootball model benchmark
Bookmaker probabilities performed better in this historical test of 4,560 Premier League and La Liga forecasts.
Published forecasts and resultsHistorical log lossLower is better
- Bookmaker closing probabilities
- 0.963
- 50:50 model and market blend
- 0.974
- PredictArena default
- 0.999
A historical test, separate from the published record. Confidence scores describe data quality.